{"id":93048,"date":"2015-04-27T12:15:42","date_gmt":"2015-04-27T16:15:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thedetroitbureau.com\/?p=93048"},"modified":"2015-04-27T12:15:42","modified_gmt":"2015-04-27T16:15:42","slug":"stop-crying-wolf-over-54-5-mpg-standard-says-queen-of-cleaner-cars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thedetroitbureau.com\/2015\/04\/stop-crying-wolf-over-54-5-mpg-standard-says-queen-of-cleaner-cars\/","title":{"rendered":"Stop “Crying Wolf,” Over 54.5 mpg Standard, Says “Queen of Cleaner Cars”"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Margo Oge retired in 2012 after 32 years with the EPA.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

With fuel prices down by as much as 30% from their 2014 peak, millions of Americans have been migrating to pickups and SUVs and abandoning compact passenger cars and alternative fuel vehicles. That\u2019s leading some industry executives to questions whether the federal government should re-think the 54.5 mpg Corporate Average Fuel Economy, or CAFE, standard set to take effect in 2025.<\/p>\n

Such a move would be a critical mistake, warns Margo Ogo, a former official with the EPA who helped put together the compromise fuel economy rules and who has been dubbed by some \u201cthe Queen of Cleaner Cars.\u201d If anything, she says, the tough mandate targeted for a decade from now doesn\u2019t go nearly far enough.<\/p>\n

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Balanced Debate!<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201c2025 is the first down-payment to the planet for the need to get away from fossil fuels,\u201d Oge told TheDetroitBureau.com during a lengthy interview marking the release of her new book, Driving the Future: Combating Climate Change with Cleaner, Smarter Cars. \u201cWe, as a society, need to move to zero-emission vehicles by 2050\u2026if we are to meet goals of reducing carbon emissions.\u201d<\/p>\n

If Oge were to be calling the shots, she said, she\u2019d be pushing for CAF\u00c9 rules that would come in something closer to 180 miles per gallon.<\/p>\n

Such numbers are well beyond the pale of anything the industry could imagine today. Volkswagen has come up with a limited-edition model, the XL1, that it claims can hit an amazing 261 mpg, but it requires the extensive use of carbon fiber and other super-light materials, offers two cramped seats, provides weak performance \u2013 and comes in at around $250,000.<\/p>\n

Even getting to 54.5 mpg will be difficult and costly, critics contend, and would force American motorists to trade in those trucks and SUVs for compact or small battery-electric vehicles \u2013 an argument that Oge quickly dismisses.<\/p>\n

For one thing, she insists that many CAFE critics knowingly misstate what the 2025 rules actually set down. She notes that the mandate is \u201cfootprint-based.\u201d In other words, it doesn\u2019t expect all vehicles to reach 54.5 mpg. A complex formula effectively lowers the target for larger vehicles \u2013 so much so that the two-wheel-drive version of Ford\u2019s new aluminum-intensive F-150 already meets the phased-in fuel economy standard for 2021.<\/p>\n

Add the fact that manufacturers will get various credits and adjustments and the 2025 target \u2013 in terms of real world mileage will be closer to 40 miles per gallon, not 54.4 mpg, the Greek-born Oge explained. For a full-size pickup like the F-150, the number would be significantly lower.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s good news considering the EPA did make at least one major error in laying out the 2025 fuel economy mandate. It assumed that 55% of the U.S. new vehicle market would be made up of sedans, coupes and other passenger cars, with trucks making up the remaining 45%. Currently, those numbers are almost exactly backwards \u2013 though industry analysts suggest things could shift dramatically if fuel costs were to surge back up to $4 a gallon any time soon.<\/p>\n

(Auto sales surge, but trucks gain traction in market.<\/em>Click Here<\/span><\/a> for more.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Critics of the 54.5 mpg standard have warned that the mandate will force Americans to trade in their gas-powered vehicles for battery-cars. In fact, countered Oge, the EPA assumptions \u201cwere not based on having a significant number of electrical vehicles or (even) strong hybrids\u201d on the market, only about 1 to 3% of new vehicle sales by 2025.<\/p>\n

\u201cFor the most part,\u201d she said, government planners were assuming the industry would meet its goal \u201cby using everyday technologies,\u201d such as \u201cdownsized turbocharged engines, stop-start, enhanced transmissions,\u201d and, added Oge, by expanding the use of lightweight materials like the aluminum F-150.<\/p>\n

(Automakers put their cars on a diet. <\/em>Click Here<\/span><\/a> for more on the lightweighting trend.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The EPA mileage rules continue to draw criticism. David Cole, director-emeritus of the Center for Automotive Safety, for one, insists the cost is too high and the savings to low. But Oge noted that consumers still rank improved fuel economy as critical. And, for the most part, automakers have embraced that goal.<\/p>\n

The compromise that led to the 54.5 mpg mandate marked a significant transition in industry-government relations, stressed Oge, who spent 32 years with the EPA. She pointed to a comment by Fiat Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne that the industry had ended, \u201cthe bad habit of crying wolf.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cTime after time,\u201d Oge said, automakers have not only exceeded their targets when it\u2019s come to federal mandates, but they have usually done it at a lower cost than expected. She is confident the same will happen by 2025.<\/p>\n

Even if \u201celectrification\u201d does prove to be a necessary part of the formula, she pointed out the sharp decline in battery prices. Just since Chevrolet conceived of the Volt plug-in, the cost of lithium-ion technology has plunged from $1,000 a kilowatt-hour to around $330. And many analysts expect it will dip to $200 by decade\u2019s end.<\/p>\n

So, despite some calls to repeal or delay the 54.5 mpg standard, Oge is confident it will remain in effect. If anything, she is calling on industry and government to consider where they would go next.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe need to continue the annual improvement beyond 2025, she said, with a goal of pushing up mileage \u201cannually by 5%\u201d for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n

While Oge left her federal job in 2012, she continues to play a role in the auto industry \u2013 more directly, in fact, as a board member of DeltaWing, a Georgia company that has developed a super-light and hyper-aerodynamic concept vehicle it hopes to put into production in the near future. The four-seat design would reportedly get better than 70 mpg while delivering performance comparable to today\u2019s midsize sedans.<\/p>\n

(<\/em>Click Here<\/span><\/a> for more on the DeltaWing project.)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With fuel prices up, and Americans buying near-record numbers of pickups and SUVs, some critics insist the EPA rollback or even abandon the 54.5 mpg mandate set to take effect in 2025. But former EPA official Margo Oge, who helped write the standard, says that would be a major mistake. Automakers should be looking for even bigger gains, she tells TheDetroitBureau.com, post-2025.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":93061,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_mo_disable_npp":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"make":[],"post-state":[],"category_old":[151],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedetroitbureau.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93048"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedetroitbureau.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedetroitbureau.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedetroitbureau.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedetroitbureau.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93048"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/thedetroitbureau.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93048\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedetroitbureau.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93061"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/thedetroitbureau.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93048"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedetroitbureau.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93048"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedetroitbureau.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93048"},{"taxonomy":"make","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedetroitbureau.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/make?post=93048"},{"taxonomy":"post-state","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedetroitbureau.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/post-state?post=93048"},{"taxonomy":"category_old","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/thedetroitbureau.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/category_old?post=93048"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}