A small Colorado startup plans to begin pilot production this year of what many see as the breakthrough battery technology that could make EVs a truly competitive alternative to today’s gas-powered vehicles.
Backed by funding from both BMW and Ford, Solid Power today said it will start supplying solid-state batteries the two automakers can use in real-world testing. If all goes well, the startup wants to find a manufacturing partner that could put its technology into mass production, perhaps as soon as 2024.
The next step is meant to provide “validation” of Solid Power’s technology, the company’s co-founder and CEO Doug Campbell said in a statement.
“A big step forward”
The announcement “supports what everyone in the industry wants to do and is a big step forward,” Stephanie Brinley, the principal auto analyst with IHS Markit, told TheDetroitBureau.com.
Solid-state technology has a number of similarities to today’s state-of-the-art lithium-ion batteries. But the most significant difference is the elimination of the liquid or gel electrolytes used currently. For one thing, that all but eliminates the risk of fire, something that has proved to be a problem for today’s manufacturers, said Sam Abuelsamid, the lead auto analyst with Guidehouse Insights.
Virtually every automaker now producing EVs has had to cope with battery fires, General Motors halting production of its Chevrolet Bolt EV and EUV models for nine months while it addressed a design and production flaw.
Making EVs more viable
On paper, at least, solid-state technology appears to have numerous other advantages. They’re smaller and lighter than lithium-ion batteries, while storing more energy. And “improving energy density is one of the keys to reducing weight and cost and making EVs more viable,” said Abuelsamid.
By some estimates, solid-state batteries could dip as low as $50 a kilowatt-hour, down from an average $150 for current EV batteries. For a vehicle with a typical 100 kWh pack, that could yield as much as $10,000 in savings, while also making the vehicle significantly lighter.
The technology also is expected to yield much quicker charging times, some proponents of solid-state batteries predicting a motorist could recharge at a high-power public charger in 10 minutes, or close to what it now takes to fill up an empty gas tank.
Mass production is the real target
The news from Solid Power marks a significant step forward towards seeing if solid-state technology will live up to such expectations. Until now, the Colorado company — and various rivals — have only produced compact cells, typically of the size used in small consumer electronic devices. Automobiles each need hundreds, even thousands of larger cells.
But this is only the first step, cautioned Brinley, noting “Going from pilot to mass production isn’t always easy. Other battery technologies” billed as ready to replace lithium-ion “haven’t met their targets.”
For his part, analyst Abuelsamid said it would be “not unreasonable” Solid Power might be ready for mass production “by the second half of the decade. I remain skeptical about 2024.”
Looking for a partner
If the new technology does prove out, Solid Power officials said they will seek out a manufacturing partner, rather than trying to set up a mass production site of their own.
“Long term, we do not endeavor to be a cell producer,” Campbell told Reuters. He pointed to SK Innovation as one possible ally.
That South Korean battery manufacturer is currently setting up three manufacturing plants for Ford, two in Kentucky, a third at the new BlueOval City manufacturing complex Ford is setting up near Memphis.
A Ford official, talking on background, told TheDetroitBureau.com that those battery plants are flexible enough to shift from conventional lithium-ion to solid-state production at only a marginal cost.
Plenty of competition
There are numerous companies working on solid-state technology, some well-established manufacturers, others nascent developers like Solid Power.
There are, said Solid Power’s CEO, the “big boys — groups like Toyota, Panasonic, Samsung, LG Energy Solution, Hyundai and CATL.”
The list of carmakers hoping to shift to the technology is a virtual who’s who of the industry, from Germany’s Mercedes-Benz to Japan’s Nissan Motor. In April, Japan’s second-largest automaker began operations at its own solid-state prototype facility, with a higher-volume prototype plant set to open in 2024. If that operation meets its targets, Nissan wants to get into mass production by 2028.
There are still skeptics who question whether solid-state technology will live up to its hype. But if it does come through, analysts like Brinley and Abuelsamid are betting it could largely replace lithium-ion as the industry’s state-of-the-art battery technology by the end of this decade.