While battery-electric vehicles make up a relatively small niche of the new vehicle market, they’re rapidly moving towards the mainstream based on the latest industry data.
The number of new BEVs registered in the U.S. surged 60% during the first quarter of this year, according to data tracked by financial services firm Experian. That was all the more significant an increase when considering that the overall U.S. new vehicle market fell by 18% during the quarter.
Tesla remained the dominant brand in the emerging segment, the data show, products including the Models S, X, 3 and Y accounting for 113,882 registrations, equal to 59% of the electric vehicles registered from January through March. By comparison, motorists registered just 8,450 Kia products, making it the second best-selling brand during that period.
Ford was in third place for Q1 with its Mustang Mach-E generating 7,407 registrations. But the Detroit automaker is hoping to see the numbers surge during the rest of this year as it begins delivering its first F-150 Lightning pickups to U.S. showrooms. The automaker claims to have more than 200,000 reservations for the truck which TheDetroitBureau.com reviewed last week.
An EV tsunami
This year is bringing a wave of new, all-electric models to market, including the BMW iX, Cadillac Lyriq, Mercedes-Benz EQB, Nissan Ariya, Subaru Solterra and Toyota bZ4X. Where there were less than 20 long-range models – those delivering at least 200 miles per charge — at the end of last year — TheDetroitBureau.com estimates the number will approach 60 by December 2022.
“Tesla is still the dominant brand in the pure EV market, but new product from Ford, Hyundai, Kia, Volkswagen and Volvo are driving solid growth,” Cox Automotive stated in a May report.
For its part, Tesla has no new products set to launch this year — the Cybertruck now scheduled for 2023, at the earliest. It is, however, ramping up production at its new plant in Austin, Texas — as well as a new facility in Berlin. It is expected to top the 1 million sales — 1.5 million by CEO Elon Musk’s estimate — mark for the first time in 2022, though that figure includes Europe, China and other foreign markets. It fell just short in 2021, selling more than 900,000 vehicles.
Compound growth
Sales of BEVs has been accelerating for several years, data from Ward’s Intelligence shows, albeit from a low base. They reached 1% of the U.S. market in mid-2018 and, by the fourth-quarter of 2021 reached 3.4 percent.
The Experian study found EV’s jumping to 4.6% of the U.S. market during the first quarter of this year — though the financial data firm tracked registrations, rather than sales.
Nonetheless, the segment is clearly ascendant, leading General Motors Chairman and CEO Mary Barra to recently declare 2022 “the tipping point” for battery-electric vehicles.
President Joe Biden earlier this year set a goal of having zero-emission vehicles account for as much as 50% of the U.S. market by 2030.
Overcoming obstacles
How far the market will grow is a matter of debate, and analysts caution that a variety of factors will have to be considered. These include the usual obstacles to widespread adoption, including cost, range and infrastructure, as well as the need for more — and more diverse — product choices.
The number of BEV models will continue rising rapidly, with 200 or more expected in U.S. showrooms by mid-decade, according to planning data manufacturers have so far revealed. GM alone expects to have at least 30 BEVs in production by 2025, Volkswagen as many as 50 through its various brands — though not all will come to the U.S.
Costs are beginning to come down as more entry models are introduced. The Hyundai Kona Electric, for example, starts at $34,000. Chevrolet is developing an all-electric version of the Equinox SUV to start around $30,000.
Range is expected to continue increasing, with more and more new models targeting 300 miles or more per charge with a version of the Lucid Air setting the current benchmark at 520.
The number of public charging stations is also growing fast, though many BEV owners have complained about a lack of reliability. Tesla has the largest individual network, with 1,347 Supercharger stations — each with multiple chargers — operating in all 50 states as of May 11. But companies like ChargePoint, Electrify America, EVgo and Green Lots have been accelerating the growth of their networks, as well.
