Slim inventories continued to hold back sales of new vehicles in November, according to analysts, despite the interest created by the heavy advertising schedule leading into the Thanksgiving weekend, which has become one of the busiest periods on the auto industry’s calendar.
New-vehicle retail sales for November 2021 are expected to decline when compared with November 2020, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and LMC Automotive. Several key automakers, including Toyota and Honda, will release November sales totals this week.
J.D. Power and LMC Automotive predict retail sales of new vehicles this month are expected to reach 933,700 units, a 12.6% decrease when adjusted for the number of selling days. November 2021 has one more selling day than November 2020.
Without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to a decrease of 8.8% from 2020, J.D Power and LMC forecast.
Overall total new-vehicle sales for November, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1.062 million units, a 14.8% decrease from the year-ago period. Comparing the same sales volume without adjusting for the number of selling days translates to a decrease of 11.1% from 2020, the pair noted in their analysis.
Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted annualized rate or SAAR for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 13.6 million units, down 2.2 million units from 2020.
Inventories remain tight
Thomas King, president of J.D. Power’s data and analytics, said, “For November — as has been the case since August — new-vehicle sales are being constrained by available inventory. Retail inventory on dealer lots is expected to end below 1 million vehicles for a fourth consecutive month, with sales in each month being dictated by the number of vehicles delivered to dealerships rather than reflecting actual demand.”
King added the lack of vehicles in inventory this month is particularly significant as the typical Black Friday sales surge will be difficult to support. The strong underlying demand for new vehicles, though, coupled with rising pent-up demand due to the inventory shortage, is sustaining record transaction prices and profits for each unit sold, he said.
Jonathan Smoke, Cox Automotive chief economist, noted in a recent report on November sales activity the industry can be thankful for a stabilized auto market. Data show most trends are stable including new-vehicle sales and new inventory. Used-vehicle prices are finally holding steady as well, Smoke added.
Demand remains strong
The U-M forecasting team notes the outlook for light vehicle production outlook is improving as the semiconductor shortage is starting to ease. It predicts the light vehicle sales pace will rise to 13.8 million units in the fourth quarter of 2021, with that escalating monthly.
Competition among shoppers for the limited number of cars on the lot is fierce: According to Edmunds data from the first half of November, one in 20 new vehicles sold the same day they hit the dealer lot. Nearly a third of all new vehicles sold within the first week, and almost half of all new vehicles sold within the first two weeks.
Normally, there should be about 3 million new vehicles either on dealer lots or in transit, according to historical industry norms. Right now, however, there are barely 1 million. Fewer vehicles means quicker sales, or in some instances, no opportunity buy at all.
