Posts Tagged ‘SAAR’

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U.S. April Auto Sales Anemic at Best

While executives project optimism, the numbers are weak.

by Ken Zino on May.04, 2010

Click on chart to enlarge.

April new-vehicle retail sales tallied 982,000 units, or a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of just over 11 million units,” according to Autodata Corporation.  

This looked okay when compared with an admittedly bad April 2009, but the fact remains the auto economy remains weak,  and incentives are propping up the market and pulling ahead sales.  

It is too early to declare that the auto recession is over. The latest information from the AutoPacific consultancy shows the intent to purchase a new car or truck in the next two years has declined over the January to March period. So there is the first problem — demand does not appear to be strengthening.  

Rising fuel prices are also complicating the outlook. The median fuel price paid in March 2010 was $2.82 per gallon, up 13 cents from January 2010 but up 86 cents per gallon from March 2009. However, interest in small cars and hybrids has declined over the last year, according to AutoPacific.  

When asked what kind of vehicle respondents would select if they were to replace their primary vehicle today, 22% selected a Small Car in March 2009, but by January 2010 Small Car consideration had fallen to 12% and continued at that level in March 2010. During this time, the price of fuel went up by 44% but the interest in Small Cars went down by 44%. This is an unwelcome trend for Detroit automakers in particular who are about to introduce new small cars such as Ford Fiesta or Focus, or the Chevrolet Cruze, which will feature at least one 40 mpg model.  

Detailed charts follow after the jump.  

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April U.S. Retail Auto Sales Projected at Slightly Up

Economy remains stuck in park; jobless recovery continues.

by Ken Zino on Apr.22, 2010

April new-vehicle retail sales are expected to come in at 804,200 units, which represents a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 9.8 million units, according to J.D. Power and Associates.

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U.S. Sales and SAAR Comparisons, April 2010
April 2010 March 2010 April 2009
New retail 804,200 units (+22% April 2009) 849,735 units 659,458 units
Total vehicle 1,008,800 units (+23% April 2009) 1,063,987 units 819,126 units
Retail SAAR 9.8 million units 9.6 million units 8.0 million units
Total SAAR 11.5 million units 11.7 million units 9.2 million units
J.D. Power and Associates. Figures for April 2010 are forecast based on the first 15 selling days of the month.

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When compared with an admittedly bad April 2009, retail sales are projected to increase by 22% in April 2010, and the selling rate is expected to increase by 1.8 million units.

Retail transactions are the most accurate measurement of true underlying consumer demand for new vehicles, according to Power, which gathers real-time transaction data from more than 8,900 retail franchises in the United States.

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It’s Official, 2009 Auto Sales Worst in Decades

by Ken Zino on Jan.06, 2010

Click on the image to enlarge.

There isn’t much to be happy about in 2009 if you are looking at the Great Recession year from an automaker or wider United States economy perspective.

  • Unemployment reached levels not seen since the Great Depression despite taxpayers spending almost three-quarters of a trillion dollars on a government “stimulus” program.
  • Consumer confidence was badly shaken, and remains at dismal levels.
  • The credit markets stayed frozen as banks took the taxpayer stimulus money or Federal Reserve loans at zero percent interest and reinvested the funds in U.S. Treasury bills, not by lending the money out as lawmakers intended.
  • And the only effective “stimulus” program in our view – CARS, aka Cash for Clunkers – took more than six months of congressional squabbling and posturing before going into effect, and then was stopped almost as soon as it began.

The real sales and share gainers in the auto market were all offshore-based companies, whose home markets are protected and all but closed to exports from U.S.-based companies.

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Top Ten!

Here are the Top Ten companies by sales: GM, Toyota, Ford, Honda, Chrysler, Nissan, Hyundai, Kia, VW, and BMW.

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December New Vehicle Sales to Increase Slightly

In comparison to an awful December 2008, that is.

by Ken Zino on Dec.23, 2009

Retail sales of new vehicles this December are expected to increase substantially compared with one year ago at  839,600 units, which represents a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 9.1 million units.

December’s fleet sales are projected to be down 10% from one year ago, although they are climbing compared to earlier this year. As a result, total sales for December are projected to come in at 1,029,600 units, up 7% from December 2008.

“The market is continuing to improve, with the relative strength of December sales supporting a year-end rally,” said Gary Dilts, at J.D. Power and Associates, which gathers real-time transaction data from more than 8,900 franchisees across the United States.

Forecasts!

“The December selling rate is tracking at 11.2 million units, up nearly 1 million units from one year ago, which sets up 2010 for further recovery,” claims Dilts. (chart follows)

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October U.S. Sales Predicted to Decline Again

However, they are "only" off single digits.

by Ken Zino on Oct.23, 2009

October new-vehicle retail sales are expected to decline 6% compared with one year ago–the first single-digit decline since May 2008, according to J.D. Power and Associates.

This decline marks the most significant improvement in 17 months, excluding August 2009 when year-over-year sales were up 13% due to the CARS program, according to the sometimes overly optimistic Power, which gathers real-time transaction data from more than 8,900 franchisees across the United States.

October new-vehicle retail sales are expected to come in at 651,600 units, which represent a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 8.3 million units. With fleet volume down only 4% from one year ago, total sales for October are projected to come in at 816,600 units, down 6% from October 2008.

U.S. New Vehicle Sales and SAAR, October  2009
October 2009(1) September 2009 October 2008 Versus October  2008
New Vehicle Retail Sales 651,600 565,446 668,159 -6%
Total Vehicles 816,600 744,161 834,018 -6%
Retail SAAR 8.3 m 7.2 m 8.7 m
Total SAAR 10.3 m 9.2 m 10.5 m
J.D. Power and Associates

(1) Figures cited for October 2009 are forecasted numbers based on the first 15 selling days of the month.

(2) The percentage change is adjusted based on the number of selling days (28 days vs. 27 days one year ago).

It was the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, and the subsequent chaos in the world’s financial markets that led to the Great Recession, which is ongoing.

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Middle Class Declines as Unemployment Grows

With 10% unemployed, auto industry prospects remain poor.

by Ken Zino on Oct.05, 2009

We need to protect and create manufacturing jobs, not continue to shed them

We need to protect and create manufacturing jobs, not continue policies that eliminate them.

The recession wracked U.S. economy shed another 263,000 jobs in September, as unemployment rate climbed to 9.8%, according to the Labor Department’s monthly employment report.

The largest job losses were in construction, manufacturing, retail trade, and government.

This country has not seen a 10% unemployment since June of 1983, and since then we have shamelessly neglected the manufacturing sector, which creates real wealth.

The ongoing Great Recession – now the longest since the Great Depression– continues to take its toll on the auto industry as the Seasonally Adjusted Selling Rate (SAAR) in September fell to 9.2 million. Year-to-date sales are off 27%, no surprise since consumer confidence is badly shaken.

The political spin that only losing 250,000 jobs a month is an improvement when compared with 700, 000 sackings a month earlier this year rings hollow. Even if some slight economic growth is coming, 2009 will be a year in which a mere ten million vehicles will be sold, in an industry that was running 50% higher than that for a decade. The ripple effect through the economy now looks more like a tsunami.

Even government jobs are declining, in spite of the $787 billion “stimulus” package passed by the Obama administration earlier this year. As tax revenues continue to decline, even the government is forced to pare employment.

Unemployment rates for the major groups–adult men (10.3%), adult women (7.8%), teenagers (25.9%), whites (9.0%), blacks (15.4%), Hispanics (12.7%) and Asians was (7.4%) –showed little change in September.

The stark fact is that rates for all major worker groups are much higher than at the start of the recession.

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs rose by 603,000 to 10.4 million in September. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) rose by 450,000 to 5.4 million. In September, 35.6% of unemployed persons were job-less for 27 weeks or more.

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U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Fall in September by 27%

Here are the final, ugly, sales results.

by Ken Zino on Oct.02, 2009

The facts are bad for most automakers.

The sales facts are bad for most automakers.

In our monthly tribute to Sergeant Joe Friday of the Los Angeles Police Department, here are the final vehicle sales numbers for September 2009.

September is a month that most automakers would like to forget.

Just the facts: Calendar-year-to-date sales are down 27%.

Korean makers Hyundai and Kia are the biggest winners in the month over month comparison.

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September Sales Tank from Clunkers Payback

It’s ugly with a 7.5 million SAAR, lowest of the year.

by Ken Zino on Sep.24, 2009

September new-vehicle retail sales are expected to come in at a mere 590,000 units, which represents a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of  just 7.5 million units, according to J.D. Power and Associates, which gathers real-time transaction data from more than 8,900 dealers across the United States.

“Low inventories and reduced incentives, combined with the effects of CARS pull-ahead sales, spell tough conditions for September,” said Gary Dilts, senior vice president of global automotive operations Power.

“September’s retail SAAR is projected to be the lowest selling rate in 2009. However, improving consumer confidence and credit conditions in the months ahead are likely to help to rebuild the retail industry,” he said.

 

U.S. New Vehicle Sales and SAAR – September 2009

 

September 2009 (1)

August 2009

September 2008

September 2008 %

New Vehicle Retail Sales

  590,000  1,142,876  740,883

-24%

Total Vehicles

  710,000  1,259,708  962,097

-29%

Retail SAAR

  7.5 m  11.8 m  8.8 m  

Total SAAR

  9.2 m  13.8 m  12.5 m  
J.D. Power and Associates  (1) Figures cited for September 2009 are forecasted numbers based on the first 16 selling days of the month. (2) The percentage change is adjusted based on the number of selling days – 25 days vs. 24 days one year ago.

It is now clear that 2009 will be a write off for what remains a financially challenged industry. Of particular concern for U.S. taxpayers is the health of the newly reorganized Chrysler Group and General Motors Company.

We Have Numbers!

We Have Numbers!

Both companies were driven into bankruptcy earlier this year because of sales that were far above current levels. Since neither company is reporting financial results, it is impossible to know if the roughly $60 billion invested by taxpayers is a reasonable investment or just delayed their demise.

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New Vehicle Sales Slump Extends to Summer

Early indicators show SAAR stuck well below 10 million for July.

by Ken Zino on Jul.24, 2009

Retail sales of new vehicles in July are projected to decrease 19% from July 2008, according to preliminary data from J.D. Power and Associates. Based on the first 15 selling days of the month, new vehicle retail sales for the month of July are expected to come in at 780,500 units, which represents a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 8.2 million units.

Power has a generally good record predicting short term sales trends.

Sales for the first half of 2009 are down about 32% from the same period in 2008.

July’s selling rate is down by 4% compared with June, a pace that remains consistent with the first half of a disastrous 2009 calendar year for automakers, suppliers and U.S. taxpayers.

The estimates are from real-time transaction data from more than 10,000 dealerships across the United States, which Power collects for a variety of automotive clients.

U.S. New Vehicle Sales and SAAR Comparisons, July 2009

July 2009 *

June 2009

July 2008

%
New Retail sales

780,500

730,600

967,500

-19
Total Vehicle sales

905,500

857,952

1.131 m

-20
Retail SAAR

8.2 m

8.5 m

10.2 m

 -20
Total SAAR

10 m

9.7 m

12.5 m

 -20
* Figures cited for July 2009 are forecasted numbers based on the first 15 selling days of the month.

Source: J.D. Power and Associates

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Used Car Sales as Harbinger of the Market

Does the conventional wisdom still hold that used car sales predict change in the new car market?

by Mike Davis on Jul.24, 2009

Memorial Day is normally a big event for car dealers, but initial data suggest that May could bring still more bad news for dealers and automakers alike.

Some Chrysler and GM dealers whose franchises have been yanked have quickly gravitated to becoming well-housed "independent" dealers.

When Business Week brought me up from the minors 52 years ago, I arrived in Motor City the day the Edsel officially went on sale, the most exciting news of the 1958 model year.

I doubt anyone realized the intro also signaled the beginning of Detroit’s worst recession in more than a decade. Car sales in 1958 dropped by 35% from the banner year of 1955.

My first solo BW assignment a few weeks later was an introduction to market prognosticating in the automobile business. “Go out on Livernois Avenue and talk to the used car dealers,” the bureau manager directed me. He told me the conventional wisdom was that as used car sales go, new car sales will not be far behind.

Livernois is a long, wide north-south avenue on Detroit’s west side. In the Fifties, it was the used car market of the nation. Open automobile lots began north of the recently vacated Lincoln plant at east-west Warren and ended just short of Eight Mile.

I can remember talking to the used car lot denizens about the interest-or lack of same-by the proverbial “southern buyers” of the time. Wholesale buyers for car dealers then came north to Detroit seeking good iron at bargain prices.

Easy Credit Terms!

Easy Credit Terms!

The industry’s culture meant many workers, especially at upper levels, bought a new car every year, their trade-ins producing scads of good used cars. And Detroit wholesale prices were lower both because of ample supplies and the fact the city’s used cars weren’t burdened with the cross-country transportation charges tacked onto new ones. Southern dealers knew they could get their purchases home cheaper than the standard charges the industry assessed before uniform national prices for transportation became the norm.

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