It's all over but the payback. While dealers wait for their money from the government, industry analysts try to figure what impact the CARS program will have on sales during the months to come.

By noon today, U.S. auto retailers will have to submit the final paperwork for their last Cash-for-Clunkers deals or forfeit the refunds they expect from the federal government.

The Cash Allowance Rebate System, or CARS, as it’s more formally known, has come to a close, barely one month and $3 billion after it began. As of midday Monday, dealers had already submitted claims covering 625,000 vehicles, which would generate at least $2.6 billion in voucher payments for dealers.

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A sizable number of claims have yet to be submitted, however, and dealers were working frantically into the night trying to get the last paperwork completed, despite the decision to extend the deadline until midday Wednesday. In fact, that extension was largely due to the repeated crashes of the government’s own computer system, on Monday.

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The Cash-for-Clunkers program may have been too successful for its own good, and now dealers want it halted immediately.

That didn’t last long.

Despite an infusion of an additional $2 billion in federal funds, on top of the original $1 billion approved by Congress, it appears the unexpectedly popular Cash-for-Clunkers program has again run out of money, says an auto dealer trade group.  As a result, the National Automobile Dealers Association is asking that Washington halt the program immediately.

NADA fears that dealers could wind up being stuck for Clunkers cash they’ve fronted for the program if it turns out more than the total $3 billion has been spent.  Officials from the Department of Transportation have acknowledged they are hugely behind in processing applications for reimbursement by dealers and have so far paid out only around $100 million, leaving many auto retailers strapped for cash.

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As to the longer-term impact, the big question is whether Clunkers will steal future sales. There is a definite pull-ahead of sales, according to CNW data.

The Cash-for-Clunkers program has proven an unexpected success, surprising critics and proponents alike.  But the program has had some unexpected results, so far, while also achieving some of its original goals, says a new survey by CNW Marketing.

It took barely a week for the program, officially known as the Car Allowance Rebate System, or CARS, to burn through the initially-allocated $1 billion, and a second tranche, worth $2 billion in federal funds, is expected to be gone well before the program was originally expected to expire, in November.

That should pull about 750,000 old clunkers off the road.  And, in turn, “It would appear greenhouse gas emissions were cut by more than 90%,” since motorists switched to more fuel-efficient vehicles, said Art Spinella, chief analyst with Oregon-based CNW.

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But that’s assuming the new vehicles would be driven the same amount as the clunkers they replaced, added Spinella, but his survey of C4C buyers shows that, “these new cars and trucks will likely be driven significantly more miles than the clunker, according to owners, and could use nearly 14.6 million gallons of gasoline more than the vehicles they replaced.”

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