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Half the Vehicles on U.S. Roads Will Be Electrified by 2030

New BCG study sees explosive growth as battery prices fall, range grows.

by on Nov.02, 2017

The Chevrolet Bolt will soon by joined by "at least" 20 more battery-electric vehicles from GM.

While battery-based vehicles still account for only a miniscule share of the global automotive market, a new study forecasts explosive growth over the coming decade or so, with as much as half of the vehicles sold in the U.S. by 2030 expected to be using some form of electrification.

In the relative near-term, government incentives, including the $7,500 federal tax credit offered in the U.S., will be needed to build momentum, said Xavier Mosquet, the lead author of the study for the Boston Consulting Group. But as battery prices fall and range increases, the technology will become increasingly attractive to consumers without government assistance, he said.

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“We see an economically sustainable market for electric vehicles somewhere between 2025 and 2030,” said Mosquet, who heads BCG’s Detroit office. And the faster battery prices fall – and the more oil costs rise – the more the equation shifts from the internal combustion engine to electrified vehicles.

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