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Number of Autos to Double to 1.7 Bil by 2035

Most growth to come in China, emerging markets.

by on Nov.13, 2012

Traffic congestion is expected to become an increasingly serious issue in emerging markets, like China -- where this toll road into Beijing came to a complete halt for days in mid-2010.

Global automotive growth will likely be constrained in the short-term but will likely accelerate once the world economy recovers from its current problems, according to a pair of new reports, with the number of passenger vehicles on the world’s roads expected to more than double by 2035.

China is expected to lead the rapid expansion, along with other emerging markets – with the total number of passenger vehicle forecast to climb to 1.7 billion over the next 23 years, reports the International Energy Agency.

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The IEA study warns that this growth could create problems by straining global sources of oil since alternate propulsion systems will remain on the margins while conventional internal combustion power “will continue to dominate the passenger light-duty market through to 2035.”

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Americans Curbing Thirst For Gasoline

Start of a long decline, experts predict.

by on Dec.22, 2010

Americans are pumping less gasoline every year.

There was a time when there seemed to be a gas station on every corner in America, and lines waiting to fill up.  But after hitting its peak in 2006, the U.S. thirst for gasoline may have finally hit its peak and is showing signs of what could be a long decline.

As 2010 draws to a close, U.S. gasoline consumption is expected to average out to about 8.2 million barrels a day, a full 8% less than the peak, four years earlier, government data shows.  And the actual figure is slightly less, since that number isn’t adjusted to reflect the ethanol that’s now blended into much of the gasoline pumped at the steadily dwindling number of service stations dotting American roads.

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By 2030, projects a study by Deutsche Bank, demand could dip as low as 5.4 million barrels a day – barely what the U.S. consumed in 1969.  Other research suggests that figure is too low, but most forecast a dip below 7 million barrels.

A variety of factors appear to be leading to the decline: more fuel-efficient vehicles are a lead factor.  Today’s typical automobile gets well more than double the mileage of the vehicles that were on the road in the 1970s, during the days of the first oil shocks.  The Corporate Average Fuel Economy standard is set to jump from 27 miles per gallon to 35.5 mpg by 2016.  And, while federal regulators have delayed a decision on what follows, the Obama Administration is clearly in favor of bumping the CAFE figure to as much as 62 mpg by 2025.

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