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New Vehicle Sales Slump Extends to Summer

Early indicators show SAAR stuck well below 10 million for July.

by on Jul.24, 2009

Retail sales of new vehicles in July are projected to decrease 19% from July 2008, according to preliminary data from J.D. Power and Associates. Based on the first 15 selling days of the month, new vehicle retail sales for the month of July are expected to come in at 780,500 units, which represents a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 8.2 million units.

Power has a generally good record predicting short term sales trends.

Sales for the first half of 2009 are down about 32% from the same period in 2008.

July’s selling rate is down by 4% compared with June, a pace that remains consistent with the first half of a disastrous 2009 calendar year for automakers, suppliers and U.S. taxpayers.

The estimates are from real-time transaction data from more than 10,000 dealerships across the United States, which Power collects for a variety of automotive clients.

U.S. New Vehicle Sales and SAAR Comparisons, July 2009

July 2009 *

June 2009

July 2008


New Retail sales





Total Vehicle sales



1.131 m


Retail SAAR

8.2 m

8.5 m

10.2 m

Total SAAR

10 m

9.7 m

12.5 m

* Figures cited for July 2009 are forecasted numbers based on the first 15 selling days of the month.

Source: J.D. Power and Associates