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November’s Movers and Losers

Even the weakest models are flying out of showrooms.

by on Dec.04, 2013

Demand for the new 2014 Range Rover Sport has made it a hot product this winter.

November delivered an early holiday present to the auto industry, sales surging by double-digits, driven by attractive Black Friday sales.  It was hard to find a manufacturer that didn’t have a good month, with the exception of Volkswagen and the Honda division. And industry analysts note that demand was strong in virtually every product segment – from minicars to full-size pickups, even minivans gaining traction after years of steady decline.

But reading between the lines can reveal a bit different story. Despite the big sales surge, industry inventories have been on the rise – one reason Ford has decided to trim a week’s production this month for the normally strong Fusion sedan – the second-largest domestic maker slicing its planned overall first-quarter production schedule by 2%.

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And while dealers had a tough time keeping some products – such as the new Range Rover and Range Rover Sport SUVs – in stock last month, they were tripping over some other models.  There was an average 115 days of inventory for the Nissan GTR sports car, for example, roughly twice the 60-day industry norm. Jaguar dealers had 103 days worth of XKR models, and there was an 89-day supply of the Acura RLX, the luxury brand’s new flagship, according to a survey by Cars.com.

Watch 'em go. The new Corvette is among the new models with the lowest days supply.

That said, inventory numbers don’t always paint an accurate picture.  Makers may sometimes flood dealer lots with outgoing products as they build out an old model to prepare for launching something new.  That happened with the transition from the 2013 to 2014 Chevrolet Silverado pickups, but GM was – correctly – counting on buyers to continue snapping up the old model even as it began the slow ramp-up of the new.  According to Cars.com, there’s now a 63-day supply of the 2014 Silverado crew cab, but that’s actually around the norm for full-size pickups.

(November car sales handily beat expectations. Click Herefor the full story.)

Nothing can hurt an old model like word that an all-new version is heading for showrooms.  That could explain the big inventory of the Nissan GTR.

But there are nonetheless some surprises on the list, especially among the November “Losers,” as Cars.com is calling them.  The Acura RLX has not gained nearly the traction the luxury arm of Honda has hoped for.  But what about the 2014 Cadillac ATS, with a 68-day supply.  The reality is that this isn’t much above the norm, and could be little more than a minor blip.  The same could be true for both of the Kia models on the list considering just how strong a performance the Korean maker has put in so far this year.

At the other end of the spectrum, there are few real surprises among the “Movers.”  The Range Rover has been at the top of the charts since its launch last year and the newer 2014 Range Rover Sport is still in short supply as production continues to ramp up.  According to Chevrolet, meanwhile, there’s as much as a 6-month waiting list for the Corvette coupe and vehicles are essentially being sold as soon as trucks arrive at the showroom.

The Nissan GT-R had the market's largest days supply in November.

There’s little doubt that demand is hot for a range of all-new models such as the BMW X5, the new Kia Soul, and the new entry-lux Mercedes-Benz CLA250.  The latter model is currently the German maker’s hottest product and company officials suggest it is achieving an 80% conquest rate – in other words, four out of five buyers are new to the Mercedes brand. Meanwhile, the new S550 premium luxury sedan is also drawing buyers in for Mercedes.

(EV sales lag. Price the big issue, according to new report. Click Here for more.)

Chrysler has got to be pleased to see its new Jeep Cherokee in the fifth spot on the list, with a mere 9 days of inventory. The question is whether this is simply the result of the crossover-ute’s painfully slow production launch, truly strong demand – or a bit of both.  That will be one car to watch in the months ahead to see if the controversial design keeps it on the Movers list.

The significant thing to note, overall, is that even among the so-called Losers, most were only slightly above what is considered normal inventory for this time of year.  That underscores just how hot U.S. new car sales are right now.  There are, in reality, only a handful of losers in the market.

(Black Friday deals deliver for the auto industry. Click Here for the story.)

Here are charts of the Movers and Losers:

 

 

 

November Movers Avg. days on dealer lot
2014 Land Rover Range Rover 7
2014 Land Rover Range Rover Sport 7
2014 Chevrolet Corvette coupe 8
2014 BMW X5 9
2014 Jeep Cherokee 9
2014 Subaru Impreza hatchback 9
2014 Hyundai Tucson 10
2014 Kia Soul 11
2014 Mercedes-Benz CLA250 11
2014 Mercedes-Benz S550 11
2014 Subaru Impreza 11
2014 Toyota Avalon 11
2014 Toyota Tacoma regular cab 11
2014 Lexus GX 460 12
2014 Subaru XV Crosstrek 12
2014 Toyota 4Runner 12
2014 Toyota Tacoma extended cab 12
2014 Toyota Tacoma crew cab 12

 

November Losers Avg. days on dealer lot
2014 Nissan GTR 115
2014 Jaguar XKR 103
2014 Acura RLX 89
2014 Kia Sedona 84
2014 Mitsubishi Lancer Sedan 83
2014 Mercedes-Benz CLS 550 72
2014 GMC Sierra 2500 HD 70
2014 Kia Cadenza 68
2014 Cadillac ATS 68
2014 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 crew cab 63

 

 

 

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One Response to “November’s Movers and Losers”

  1. Jorge M. says:

    Eventually they will saturate the market again.